Does velocity on the Cape lead to pro draft success?

by Greg in


2008 All-Star 011A graduate student at Arizona State University emailed me a question this weekend that I wanted to share with the broader Cape League community. Maybe you can help. The student is working on his MBA with a focus on sports business, and his question is an interesting and a timely one:

Is there evidence that a pitcher's velocity in the Cape Cod Baseball League leads to greater or lesser success in the professional draft?

The closest we have come to addressing this is a piece I wrote several years ago about some statistical analysis that compares performances by players in the  Cape League who went on to play in the professional NY-Penn League.

I know from watching scouts' radar guns and the readings we get at Falmouth on the press box that players consistently hit low-90s and we see a fair number of mid-90s and the occassional upper-90s performance.

I have never compared velocities I saw on the Cape with how high a player goes in the draft.  It wouldn't be hard to figure out.  Aaron Crow went number 12 in the draft this summer and I will never forget his performance in the 2007 All-Star game where he was named MVP. I think whatever his velocity was that night would be worth finding out. I have no doubt that his dominance in the Cape League led to a higher rank in the draft.

Anyone have CCBL velocity data on top draft picks?