Does the Cape Forecast the Draft?

by Greg in


Behind the scenes here at CodBall we've been debating whether or not the quality of one year's Cape Cod Baseball League All-Star selections can predict the quality and enthusiasm of a future year's MLB draft. MLB reported recently that the 2011 draft was "by all accounts, a bumper crop few have seen before."  We've heard that before about MLB drafts of old.

My question is can we predict future bumper crops by looking at this year's harvest on the  Cape?

For example.not so long ago emerging MLB slugger Justin Smoak (Cotuit) was the top pick from the Cape in 2006 and was a first rounder for the Rangers in 2008.  Tim Lincecum played on the Cape in 2005 and the very next year was the Giants' top pick.

What I wonder is if the quality of and media enthusiasm for the two Cape all-star squads predicts whether a future MLB draft is a bumper crop or just a handful of prospects.

The writing staff at CodBall is skeptical of my speculation. And for good reason. They warn that the international draft and high school players are major considerations. And of course we can't really evaluate how successful a draft is for a few years until those draftees prove they can play quality ball at the Big League level.

I hope my colleagues at CodBall will jump in with their views. And I'm curious what readers think.

Btw -- I will be at Falmouth (Wed) and Bourne (Thursday) games this week.